It is a spectator to see: Donald Trump’s America stands alone on the Iran nuclear deal in the world, whereas before America with the European Union, China and Russia entered into a landmark deal with Iran two years ago, restricting its ability to enrich nuclear centrifuges, Iran would stand alone in the region as well as the world. Donald Trump, who adds not-so-unpredictable naiveties to his presidency regularly, has harmed his country’s credibility to that extent by not verifying the Iran deal that the comity of nations would think twice before entering into any diplomatic deal with the superpower.
Since his presidential campaign, Donald Trump had been talking against the Iran pact but then no one took his onslaught so seriously. No one had ever thought of such a scenario when the deal was being negotiated in 2015 to clip Iran’s nuclear pursuits. Then-Secretary of State John Kerry was so hopeful of the footings of the deal that he had hope that “any future president would honor the agreement as long as Iran and the other five nations involved continued to support it”.
But he could not foresee an America under a president who acts to his whims. When not a single official in military, diplomacy and intelligence agencies found any violation on part of Iran regarding the deal terms, Donald Trump found a silly excuse that Iran was violating the spirit of the deal and announced he would not certify it. The same president has certified the deal twice earlier. Now, he sees the deal not in his country’s interests, though a majority of the sane voices disagree with him, and that Iran is not abiding by the deal, though all international partners agree that Iran does comply the terms.
After Donald Trump has refused to certify the deal, the Iran pact will be referred to Congress to sleep over it and decide its fate in two months. Three possible scenarios emerge: it might scrape it, do nothing or come up with some balancing act. But like Donald Trump, most of the Congress members have also a no better idea to replace the terms to prevent Iran from pursuing its idle nuclear pursuits and satisfy the other players of the deal. None of Iran, the EU, China and Russia has shown interest to revisit the deal. In a snub, the EU has said that if America pulls out of the deal, it will take measure to protect its interests. Besides them, who else is watching the proceedings so keenly? Of course, it is North Korea, which was being signaled by Donald Trump to strike a deal to sign off its nuclear programme against economic incentives. Other would-be nuclear powers would also never rely on America. In short, diplomacy would never work in the future if the Iran deal is scrapped and sanctions are slapped again on Iran.
The scenario under which Iran is slapped sanctions would trigger panic in Pakistan too. The gas-starved country of ours needs gas supplies from its western neighbour. Of Iran and America, Pakistan has to make hard a choice, and without offending Iran, it often chooses America, which the Iranians accept with a grim face. This time, however, if a wounded and deceived Iran returns to stockpiling enriched uranium and takes other measures to resume its nuclear dreams, a war may ensue. If Donald Trump is allowed to play free, an international crisis is going to set in. And we must prepare for it.
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