The Quadrilateral Coordination Group is meeting in Muscat for the sixth time; holding high hopes from the dialogue will be naive. The history of the group meetings tells that every time the group meets, makes commitments and leaves the venue leaving out commitments behind. This time, a mix of low level and high-level officials are participating in the talks as Pakistan is being represented by the foreign secretary whereas Afghanistan will be represented by its junior foreign minister, which speaks volume.
The Taliban have chosen not to participate in the event. In the quadrilateral round table, Pakistan may come under huge pressure from Afghanistan and the US to help revive peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban for Pakistan has long been accused of having links with Afghan militants. Even US President Donald Trump and the defence secretary have said that Pakistan has safe havens of the Taliban in Peshawar and Quetta, which Pakistan denies.
The Pakistani delegation has no representative from the army. This point should be noted. In the last five meetings, there has been no major breakthrough and even this time, Afghanistan and the US may not be hopeful of any positive result emerging from the meeting. Pakistan may see China and Russia as its renewed partners in Afghanistan peace after the US comments on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor where the US tried to make it controversial by saying that it passes through a disputed territory. As India and the US want to scuttle China’s influence in the region, China may see an opportunity in the Quadrilateral Coordination Group meeting to push back the US directly and India indirectly.
The Taliban, who are not part of the Quadrilateral Coordination Group, may reject whatever the group is up to, especially after the rescue operation of the Canadian-American couple and their children in Pakistan. The incident reflects the reality that Pakistan holds no soft corner for the Taliban, whereas the militant group has also shown no sympathy for Pakistan in their post-rescue statements. Though the rescue operation by the Pakistan army won Americans’ overwhelming praise, Afghanistan is still a point where both sides have divergent views. The US encourages Indian role in Afghanistan, while Pakistan sees India a spoiler in Afghan peace process.
Why is the Quadrilateral Coordination Group interested in talking to the Taliban? Why has long been Pakistan stressing dialogue with the Taliban militants? It is astonishing to see that at a time when the world is turning to boycott or no talk option whenever the other side is non-state actors, why have the Taliban gained much importance in the Afghan peace context? Why are the US and its allied army helpless to defeat the leaderless and on-the-run group of militants? The talks offer increases Taliban’s bargain chip. And the group has a bad track record of honouring its commitments.
The best strategy to buy peace in Afghanistan is to fight out militancy till the proverbial last militant is alive and kicking. They must be chased, arrested and brought to justice. The group meeting in Muscat must discuss the strategy to put down the elements of militancy in Afghanistan and Pakistan, as that is the only viable and durable solution.
Editor Sahib : How do you see the current situation in Pakistan, I mean the clash between civil and military leadership,.Don't you think it's also considered, one of the basic obscticles in the way of PEACE talk with Taliban across the border???
ReplyDeleteThe civil-military relationship are not as strained as we think of them.
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